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Post by Admin on Sept 8, 2023 3:10:14 GMT
I just added this Weather forum because while I was at the lake today, Weather affected me.
I had read the forecast and it said that X hour and X hour that t-storms would be mixed in with clouds.
I paid little attention to it, especially after I viewed the radar and seen only one sector/cell of t-storms headed toward Beckley, W.V., U.S.A.
Meteorologist 1, Michael 0
After I left the lake, from dipping in it and bathing from head to toe, I was sitting there (talking to a girl on the smart phone), and all of a sudden I heard the rumbling of Thunder in the distance.
Not long after I hung up with her, the skies turned dark quickly and the rain followed suit.
Meteorology use to be a very inexact Science. Now, however, which it has proven to me on several occasions, Meteorology has proven to be an exact Science. I use accuweather.com - it has hourly and minute forecasts that have proven to me to be accurate and even precise.
Michael Piziak, B.S., M.A.
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Post by kingcong on Sept 10, 2023 20:03:48 GMT
Weather forecasts are a lot more reliable today than, say, 30 years ago - that's for sure... but it's far from an exact science, and different forecasters have different reliability rates depending on the region for which they're forecasting. From what I've just read in a 2023 Time article, the most reliable U.S. weather forecasts are around 76 - 89% accurate depending on the state:
What you've seen isn't proof that it's an exact science... rather, you've found a weather forecaster with - anecdotally - high reliability for your location; but your sample size and scope of geographical regions and weather forecasters is narrow, and you've not formally analysed multiple forecasts vs actual results over an extensive time period. If you were to look at the wider picture in detail, I think you'll see how inexact it still is...
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Post by Admin on Sept 11, 2023 16:26:24 GMT
Weather forecasts are a lot more reliable today than, say, 30 years ago - that's for sure... but it's far from an exact science, and different forecasters have different reliability rates depending on the region for which they're forecasting. From what I've just read in a 2023 Time article, the most reliable U.S. weather forecasts are around 76 - 89% accurate depending on the state:
What you've seen isn't proof that it's an exact science... rather, you've found a weather forecaster with - anecdotally - high reliability for your location; but your sample size and scope of geographical regions and weather forecasters is narrow, and you've not formally analysed multiple forecasts vs actual results over an extensive time period. If you were to look at the wider picture in detail, I think you'll see how inexact it still is...
Interesting statistics you have there. Yes, I agree, weather isn't an exact Science, but it has become more and more exact over the years/time. At the weather site I use, they have hourly and radar predictions which I've found to be fairly accurate. It even has "minute-cast," which I've also found to be pretty accurate.
79% to 89% accurate forecasts in the U.S. - thanks for sharing that. I did not know that!
And true, I have not analyzed any forecasts to see how exact or inexact they are. But without personally examining forecasts, I think we both agree that as time goes on & the Science/Technology of forecasting evolves, then forecasting will most likely become more and more accurate. Will it ever get to be an exact Science, perhaps not, then again perhaps one day it will be so accurate that some will call it exact. But I stand corrected, it isn't "exact" yet - I'm never beyond being corrected ~ IMO any man, especially Scientists, that can't accept being corrected, well, they are foolish....
Michael Piziak
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Post by ZandraJoi on Nov 20, 2023 16:02:41 GMT
Weather forecasting has come a long way but it's still not 100%. If it says 15% rain, we expect rain. 90%, no rain. Also I live in Michigan where we can have summer go to winter in one day!
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